SELECTIONS for Fri., Feb. 1, 2008

Race 8: Here's a long-winded analysis I did for another handicapping forum (http://www.upinclass.com)-

1)Ten Bolts/6-1/Rice/Centeno/Performance envelope[83-92]-Improving sort just passed first condition. Well-bred mare had false starts to career at 2 and 3, seems to be on track now. Likes to sit a bit off the pace, get first jump on the true closers. Centeno is the best turf rider on the grounds, with newcomer Velez a close second. Inside post helps running style. Contender.

2)Mystic Soul/5-2/Ward/Rocco/Performance envelope[73-94]- Listed stakes winner, grade 2&3 placed, all in Cali for Mullins. Bet Mott/Vegso were pissed when she got claimed first-out...whoops. Horse shows up at GP off six month layoff, one modest work showing, runs like a "broken" horse. No interim works; I'd be surprised if she doesn't scratch. Non-contender.

3)Lady Renaissance/7-2/Clement/Morales/Performance envelope[84-92]- Deep closer just missed at this level last time, was 3 clear of the rest. Clement ships here to find soft spots, always with winning intentions. Morales is riding with great confidence lately. Daughter of Smart Strike seems to have a bit of "hang" in her, as I would have expected her to pass this condition by now. Still, a contender.

4)Carocita/9-2/Sheppard/Homeister, Jr./Performance envelope[82-90]- Strong closer returned from a year layoff in Dec. at Calder, finishing behind the above horse in a race where both had traffic problems in the lane. Had a troubled trip again next out when just missing, then faced better at GP, giving a similar performance in a slow early/fast late mile race. George Strawbridge doesn't need the purse money, so I think that Sheppard is sending her here for a confidence-building win that can propel her forward. His choice of rider, however, is a concern. RoHo doesn't ride nearly as well on the grass, I've watched her(21% vs. 10%). Marginal Contender.

5)The Lady Waffles/10-1/Feliciano/Gonzalez/Performance envelope[81-88]- mare is a terrific dirt miler, but they've kept her on the lawn this season. Mid-pack type does have speed, however, and can set/stalk the pace in slower races. ITM chances at this level, but this is a strong group. Marginal-contender.

6)Rain Shower/8-1/Oliver/Velez/Performance envelope[80-89]- Strong finisher has been knocking around this level for a while, seems to be a "rallied too late" type. Velez on will help, but don't foresee a victory against this bunch. Marginal Contender.

7)Survicat/20-1/Bates/Panici/Performance envelope[69-86]- Almost seems like Bates is running her over her head on purpose, to darken the form, but the good efforts that follow aren't winning ones. Non-contender.

8)Green Door/10-1/Maker/Montalvo/Performance envelope[unknown]- Lightly-raced daughter of Danzig has polytrack form, but grass is a ? Bred to handle it, Maker has been spot on in her three starts here, but I'm taking a stand against off the long layoff, short PMM worktab. Non-contender.

9)Gilded Arrow/12-1/Offutt/Butler/Performance envelope[76-86]- Pace casualty will be overmatched against these, needs to drop to open claimers for a win. Non-contender.

10)Inhonorofjohnnie/15-1/McQuade/Garcia/Performance envelope[83-88]- Veteran mare will be the speed of the race, may be able to take them a long way with little other speed signed up for this. Lone entrant in for a tag has been knocking heads with the best at Suffolk Downs, tends to hold on for a piece when at her best. Marginal contender.

Wager: $2tri- 3/1,4,6,10/1,4,6,10