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Wednesday, March 26, 2008

SELECTIONS- Wed., March 26, 2008

Race 5: #1-Twinbucktu shipped in for a good 2nd in a Tampa key race two back, then raced at GP last time and ran evenly. Three works since last, but not sure about the 3 week gap after the GP race; also, note that Centeno is on the #3-horse this time. #3-Majestic Albert goes out for 1-for-56 trainer Walt Bernhart, but Centeno's presence and the Mar. 19 Ocala breeze say that this horse is ready. Chaotic after those two standouts, so a super is in order.

Wager: $0.30superfecta- 3/1,6,7,9/1,6,7,9/ALL

Race 8: #3-Buddha Pass is 3-for-5 lifetime, gets the hood and drops for Ness/Villa-Gomez; Morales bails on th #3 to ride#4-Forbidden Colony for Jane Cibelli, consistent closer is usually close, can't ignore; #10- L.I. Ice Tea has good speed, fits with these.

Race 9: #4-Gold Jolie ran lights out in last, can stalk and finish going 7 panels; #5-Whataclassybroad ships in from FG for Proctor, has Lezcano listed as the jock; #8-A Wee Gift turns back and goes turf to dirt for Joan Scott, Velez gets aboard.

Race 10: #2-Best Westerner, full brother to Lookinforthesecret, tries the turf again for Ness/Centeno. #5-Pulla Fast One returns to the races for Dogwood Stables, probably needs one but could win this on less than best; good works on the 11th and 18th.

Race 11: #2-Paula's Pilates can stalk here for Catalano/Piermarini, who unleashed a good looking firster the other day; #4-Skyblue Cowgirl faces winners for the first time off maiden win at the distance, gets Velez and carrying a bullet; #11-She's Bloomin is the likely fave, repeat of last can get it done.

Wager: $1pick4- 3,4,10/4,5,8/2,5/2,4,11

Recap for Tues. Mar. 25th-

Meet record: 42/187= 22% Bet: 2290.00 Won: $1845.60 Loss: -$444.40

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

SELECTIONS- Tues., Mar. 25, 2008

Race 5: MSW at 1 3/8mi on the grass. #1-Freeboard has improved in each of his turf starts, can sit close with little pace apparent, and the distance will be beneficial to him. #3-Dixieland Drummer has the fastest turf effort, in his Oct. debut, but hasn't run since Dec.; interesting that Frostad ships him here, but not sure that he'll be all out for a win in this spot. Rest of the race is chaotic.

Wager: $0.50Superfecta- 1/3,5,7/3,5,7/ALL

Race 7: #5-Keri's Angel was just short of brilliant here last year, is reunited with Martinez; had a prep, against better, now drops in for a tag and should be ready to roll.

Wager: $10win- 5 & $4exa- 5/1,3,6,8,10 & $1pick4- 5,6,8/2,7,11/4,9/7,10

Race 8: #7-Sir Diamond and #9-Hubbard come out of the same quickly run sprint last out; #11-Out In The Open stretches out off two good 5F events.

Wager: $4exabox- 7,9,11

Recap- as of Sun. Mar. 23rd-

Meet record: 42/182= 23% Bet: $2179.00 Won: $1845.60 Loss: -$333.40

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

SELECTIONS- Wed., Mar. 19, 2008

Race 7: #3-Clever Thought was a close-up second throughout last time with the blinkers on, but the race had a weak pace profile; not ready to take 2-1 m/l off that effort. #4-Glimmering Hope makes second start off the layoff, and goes turf to dirt, for Joan Scott; she has sparkling stats for both angles, and two good interim works. #9-I'm Jealous was third behind Clever Thought last out, and did well to close with nothing coming back; gets blinkers today, Debbie Artz is having a career meet. #1-Game Show debuts for Darley/Albertrani/Centeno; daughter of Deputy Minister is a half to Petionville; hope she takes a lot of cash and needs a start or two.

Race 8: #3-Sister Nan crushed n3l foes last out going a route, now turns back to six and-a-half and should get a bunch of speed to sit off of. #6-Saratoga Tango has two good sprints under her belt, has stalking speed and might just be better than these. #7-Mooji's Sister is the common link to these, trading positions with most of these lately; never off the board here, Morales sticks. #12-Eyes Of K.T. dueled with Mooji's Sister most recently; twelve hole could be problematic for Ness/Centeno runner.

Race 9: #7-Positively Charming has strong early lick, with little other obvious speed signed up; if Velez gets her to settle she could be long gone. #8-Carwell was rank and had trouble last out; Chuck Simon adds blinkers, reaches out to Centeno to ride Mrs. Thayer's filly.

Race 10: #2-Elusive Flower debuts for Tom Albertrani; daughter of Harlan's Holiday could be a bit of a price even with Centeno up. #8-Star Trader makes her first start for Proctor/Velez; win-early pedigree and some good AM drills visible. #9-Dixiana Darling ran a winning race first out but ran into a buzzsaw named Tight Precision that day; showed very high speed in debut, drops back to 6 panels, and has a 5F bullet since; booyah.

Wager: $1 pick4- 3,4,9/3,6,7,12/7,8/2,8,9

Recap for Tues., Mar. 18th-

Meet record: 42/181= 23% Bet: $2107.00 Won: $1845.60 Loss: -$261.40

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

SELECTIONS- Tues., Mar. 18, 2008

Race 7: #7-Affirmed Action has stalking speed, should be able to press or lead throughout, at a short price; #9-Vocabulary goes third off the lay, has back numbers that would win this, Centeno stays; #5-Tootainted runs better around two turns, maybe turf is what he's been waiting for; gelded son of Broken Vow will be a big price.

Race 8: #7-City Prospect has the early zip to outrun these and never look back.

Race 9: #1-Robin Des Concorde will stalk from the rail under Centeno, great work for this; #4-Cullowhee is a 5F turf specialist, can fire big off the long layoff; #9-Unleash The Cat is another off the long vacation, was facing better going longer and should be flying late.

Race 10: Trainer plays- #3- J Henry for Jane Cibelli, and #10-Crowning Jewel for Greg Griffith.

Wager: $4 Pick4- 5,7,9/7/1,4,9/3,10

Recap- Sat. Mar. 15, 2008-

Meet record: 42/180= 23% Bet: $2035.00 Won: $1845.60 Loss: -$189.40

Saturday, March 15, 2008

SELECTIONS- Saturday, March 15, 2008-

Race 1: #6-Tricks Of Glory has the best early speed, Ronnie Allen knows this guy's hole card. #1-Singing Steel drops to career low, likes it wet. #8-Roundtripper closes like a train, loves Tampa (19-6-4-5) but rarely gets up at 6F. #9-Tanqueray Time is in best form, could be a price under Centeno. #11-Ruba Dub Dub put it all together last time, a repeat makes him a contender.

Wager: $4exa- 6/1,8,9,11

Race 2: #3-Disbelief is a tremendous stretch runner, will need a hot pace. #4-Mr. D'or is the speed, not sure if he'll get pushed early. #7-Uno Way Calle is the most likely pace presser, but tires late. #11-Right Flanker will run mid-pack and try to grind them down late; ignore him at your own peril.

Wager: $4exa- 3/4,11 & 4,11/3

Race 3: Of those who have run, #5-Flatter Me Blue has good early speed, like the recent works. FTS #2-Bold Eagle looks like a runner for Kinsman, think they saved him for today so "the Boss" can watch. #3-Patrick's Tack debuts for Tim Ritchey (19% FTS) with good drills; what is it with the Northern Afleet's, he seems to train every one of them, hoping for Alex again. #8-Debs Gone Wild probably wants grass, but the March 1st bullet calls out. #10-Storm Raider shows long works at Calder, but is bred to win early.

Wager: $2exa- 2,5/2,3,5,10

Race 4: If #2-Hatta Fort is ready, he should dust these; Group II winner at Newmarket carries the Godolphin blue silks. Otherwise, #3-Gibber's Gold seems best, wasn't totally embarassed last time in the stake at GP.

Wager: $1tri- 3/2,5,8/2,4,5,8

Race 5: #6-Milto's Express is just faster than the rest, but #5-Miss Goodnight is an improving closer on a mission for Ritchey.

Wager: $4exa- 5,6/1,3,5,6

Race 6: #2-Vocalize turns back to 7 panels, should be closing fast under Morales with expected hot pace; his two 2nd place finishes were both key races.

Wager: $1tri- 2/1,6,9,10/1,6,9,10

Race 7: Not sure which of the Godolphins will go, but if it's #1-Tam Lin, I'm not on board. If #1A-Palace Episode runs, he'll be tough to beat, even from the outside post. However, #8-Stay Close has never been better, and had an impossible task trying to run down Cosmonaut after the snail-like pace last time. There's enough speed for an honest pace today, and he's taken to upset for Zwiesler/Montalvo.

Wager: $10win- 8 & $1tri- 8/1,3,6/1,3,5,6

Race 8: #1-Silver Pegasus is firing on all cylinders, moves up in class but still looks formidable. #10-Brush On By showed a liking for the surface last out, will be flying late.

Wager: $5exa- 1,10/1,6,9,10

Race 9: #2-Lear's Princess should turn the tables here; 2nd off the lay, more favorable distance, pace is the only question. No wager here, just enjoy.

Race 10: #3-Calico Bay looked super at OBS, has light-years more experience, mileage than the rest. Use the other shippers underneath.

Wager: $10exa- 3/2,4,6

Race 11: #7-Around The Cape can shock these, at a price. Look at his last six grass tries, and Johnny V. aboard is OK by me.

Wager: $10win- 7

Race 12: War Pass.

Wager: $10exa- 3/5,6


Took a little time off from making selections, maybe the brief freshening will have cleared any "handicapper's bias" that I had developed. Weather report: quarter inch of rain officially at TAM yesterday, but the radar looked ugly and there were definitely locations with heavier showers/storms and higher totals. Let's hope Oldsmar wasn't one of them. Best card of the year Saturday, arguably best card ever; three GIIIs, five turf races and some horse named War Pass.

Meet record: 39/168= 23% Bet: $1846.00 Won: $1740.60 Loss: -$105.40

Thursday, March 6, 2008

SELECTIONS- Thurs., Mar. 6, 2008

Race 5: Carl Cooper runs #4-Sea Salty Run(20-1 m/l) back on six days rest, drops him in class and has seemingly found the impossible: a 6F race with no early speed. Dooley should send him right out of there and see what happens.

Wager: $5win/place- 4

Race 6: Third leg of the Tampa Turf Test for the boys, at 9F. #1-Sir Swervalot draws the inside, and Centeno will have him forwardly placed with an expected slow pace.

Wager: $5exa- 1/3,5,7

Race 7: I think #2-Anglers Reef has one more good one left in him, drops back to best distance(7F) and level of win two back.

Wager: $5exa- 2/1,4,5

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Recap for Tues. Mar. 4th-

Two for three on the day, with the turf race washed off. Incidentally, the winner of that race, Wild Weekend, was totally overlooked in the wagering, returning $185.60 for the win, and keying an $800 exacta, $6500 triple and $31,000 superfecta (only dime fractional winners.) Main track was wet fast from race 5 onward, but played fair; the winner of the 8th, a MSW for 3yo fillies, was Tight Precision, who ran the 7 panels in 1:23.34; she'll get a big number for that effort and has a future. Dixiana Darling was 6 lengths clear in second after dueling throughout and should be a timely winner next out.

Meet record: 39/166= 23% Bet: $1821.00 Won: $1740.60 Loss: -$80.40

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

SELECTIONS- Tues., Mar. 4, 2008

Race 5: #8-Marine Recruit has good speed, has been carefully handled by trainer Sam Cronk; last was a 'speed, tired' against a salty group of Clm25, now he drops into a winning spot where he can lead or stalk.

Wager: $5exa- 8/1,4,7

Race 7: #6-Remember Shirley was overmatched against a tougher bunch last out, will stalk the leaders under Centeno; #5-Two Spot Club goes turf to dirt, won at these conditions opening week.

Wager: $4exa- 6/2,5,7

Race 8: What to do with Joan Scott firster #8-Dixiana Darling? Has all the signs: 18% FTS sire, long, steady works including four 5F breezes in Feb., two near bullets included. Barn is cold, and she'll be better next time, so #4-Tight Precision is the play. A repeat of her last, five lengths clear of #6-Omnyti, who also runs back for Mott/Zayat/Centeno, should win this.

Wager: $4exa- 4/1,6,8

Race 9: If the #11-Green Turtle Cay gets in from the AEs, they're all probably running for second place money. Otherwise, #9-Royal War Academy has one more shot to get his career back on track; Willie Martinez in the irons makes me think twice, in a turf race, but if he can stay near the front how much trouble can he get into (famous last words) ?

Wager: $1tri- 9/1,2,5,10/1,2,5,10

Recap for Sat. Mar. 1st-

A break-even day, hitting the first two exactas ($58.20, $38.60), then missing badly the rest of the card. Track played fair to all styles, even the rail seemed better. Second half of the Tuesday card is very playable, with fast/firm in the offing.

Meet record: 37/163= 23% Bet: $1782.00 Won: $1645.00 Loss: -$137.00

Saturday, March 1, 2008

SELECTIONS- Sat., Mar. 1, 2008

Race 1: Two long-layoff wildcards in here, #1-Trip Or Treat and #3-A Curious Lady, who should both show speed. #9-Nina's Royal Palm will stalk and is the likely favorite, #5-Jackie's Sister goes turf to dirt and should be the best finisher, and #8-Jackie Be Good might be the best speed under RoHo.

Wager: $2exa- 5,9/3,5,8,9

Race 2: #8-Baradore is a strong closer who never quite gets there; will use him in a back wheel.

Wager: $2exa- 2,4,7,10/8

Race 3: #7-Cause And Effect just looks better than these, can stalk and finish strongly going 7 panels.

Wager: $4exa- 7/2,3,5

Race 4: #4-Tiz Clever makes his 3rd career start for Dale Bennett; Tiznow gets 14% first time grass. All the experienced grass horses are stuck on the AEs. Wager assumes they don't get in.

Wager: $1tri- 4/3,6/all

Race 5: #6-Taps Return comes off nearly a year layoff, but had a terrific work on 2/15 and doesn't have to be 100% fit to beat these. #7-Plays Pops Choice goes third off the layoff for Sam Cronk, should be set for his best.

Wager: $2exa- 6,7/2,6,7,10

Race 7: #4-Deacon Dan is a very strong closer, goes third off the layoff for 30% trainer Tony Wilson.

Wager: $10win- 4 & $1tri- 4/1,3,6,11/1,3,6,11

Race 9: #9-Cut For Luck has never been better, can sit off the pace and surprise these.

Wager: $1tri- 9/2,5,6,7/2,5,6,7

Recap for Thurs. Feb. 28th-

Won the battle, but lost the war. Positivelycharming ran an unexpectedly poor race, but I could only get 3rd and 4th. 12-race card on tap for Saturday, including a somewhat lackluster group of fillies and mares going 8.5F in the Wayward Lass Stakes; looks like a good betting opportunity, however, as I don't like either of the probable favorites, Inda, for Shug and Cash's Girl, who has never gone two turns, for Tim Ritchey.

Meet record: 35/156= 22% Bet: $1718.00 Won: $1548.20 Loss: -$169.80

In the winner's circle...

In the winner's circle...
@ Belmont Park

Student Of The Horse

Student Of The Horse